Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

Ascension Health

Lung screening gap across 107 counties in Alabama, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin

1.3Mto2.4Madults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 24,400 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 65% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
KYGAWIFLILOHMSAL
107 counties104 acute care hospitalsService areaShowing the Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Tennessee and Wisconsin region; all regions are mapped below.
1.6M to 2.9Madults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
14,000lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
18.2%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of Ascension Health's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Tennessee and Wisconsin

Texas

Kansas and Oklahoma

Connecticut and New York

Florida

Alabama and Florida

Plus 1 smaller areas listed in the table.

Adults likely eligible, per county

0+2,900+4,900+7,900+14,700+21,900+56,500+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
Cook CountyIllinois177,400 to 380,40026.98,348
Harris CountyTexas169,600 to 333,40023.52,976
Wayne CountyMichigan96,400 to 157,00037.13,271
Oakland CountyMichigan48,800 to 119,90027.12,397
Travis CountyTexas32,400 to 84,30018.51,171
Macomb CountyMichigan47,800 to 83,60038.7396
Marion CountyIndiana40,700 to 78,80043.51,967
DuPage CountyIllinois29,700 to 72,70023.31,418
Duval CountyFlorida45,900 to 71,90035.41,673
Milwaukee CountyWisconsin38,400 to 69,50034.33,468
Fairfield CountyConnecticut35,700 to 68,10020.21,077
New Haven CountyConnecticut32,200 to 61,50028.71,487
Jefferson CountyAlabama29,000 to 58,50033.31,364
Davidson CountyTennessee26,500 to 56,90033.33,252
Baltimore CountyMaryland31,000 to 56,60032.33,201
Tulsa CountyOklahoma29,800 to 56,50034.3784
Lake CountyIllinois24,700 to 53,80026.4561
Will CountyIllinois27,000 to 51,00033.4553
Williamson CountyTexas19,700 to 40,60021.180
Sedgwick CountyKansas24,500 to 40,30037.11,032
Kane CountyIllinois18,600 to 39,70025.3294
Genesee CountyMichigan24,100 to 39,10039.9219
Baltimore cityMaryland25,900 to 36,20040.93,638
Waukesha CountyWisconsin16,100 to 35,60026.0493
Hamilton CountyIndiana11,400 to 27,80021.3439
Rutherford CountyTennessee14,900 to 25,60038.5242
Escambia CountyFlorida15,800 to 25,60043.4620
McHenry CountyIllinois12,800 to 24,60033.7259
St. Johns CountyFlorida12,900 to 24,10024.9164
Baldwin CountyAlabama13,400 to 23,10032.562
Williamson CountyTennessee9,400 to 21,90021.323
Kalamazoo CountyMichigan10,100 to 21,40033.6157
Shelby CountyAlabama8,300 to 20,30025.585
Livingston CountyMichigan9,200 to 20,00029.9None billed locally
Saginaw CountyMichigan10,900 to 19,20035.6418
McLennan CountyTexas10,500 to 18,70032.2385
Sumner CountyTennessee10,900 to 18,40039.412
Clay CountyFlorida10,900 to 18,30036.922
Vanderburgh CountyIndiana9,500 to 17,50039.8887
Racine CountyWisconsin10,300 to 16,90035.3None billed locally
St. Clair CountyMichigan10,300 to 16,80044.2101
Okaloosa CountyFlorida8,900 to 16,50041.534
Bay CountyFlorida10,400 to 15,90041.6171
Hays CountyTexas8,300 to 15,80021.265
Santa Rosa CountyFlorida9,800 to 15,10040.1None billed locally
Hendricks CountyIndiana7,600 to 14,70032.7163
Outagamie CountyWisconsin8,200 to 14,50027.7172
Broome CountyNew York8,600 to 14,20029.5254
Montgomery CountyTennessee9,300 to 14,10046.4241
Wilson CountyTennessee8,000 to 13,90034.538
Winnebago CountyWisconsin8,200 to 13,50031.2303
Madison CountyIndiana8,600 to 12,90049.4None billed locally
Calhoun CountyMichigan7,700 to 12,90045.345
Allegan CountyMichigan6,500 to 11,40035.4None billed locally
Calhoun CountyAlabama6,400 to 11,10048.090
Lapeer CountyMichigan5,700 to 9,50038.769
Rogers CountyOklahoma5,400 to 8,80040.2None billed locally
St. Clair CountyAlabama5,200 to 8,70046.0None billed locally
Howard CountyIndiana5,200 to 8,40044.4None billed locally
Kankakee CountyIllinois5,200 to 8,40040.6372
Ozaukee CountyWisconsin3,700 to 8,10021.1267
Talladega CountyAlabama5,400 to 7,90045.0None billed locally
Wagoner CountyOklahoma4,700 to 7,70035.7None billed locally
Bastrop CountyTexas5,100 to 7,30030.6None billed locally
Creek CountyOklahoma4,700 to 7,10048.9None billed locally
Walton CountyFlorida4,900 to 6,90035.428
Warrick CountyIndiana3,000 to 6,20039.3None billed locally
Boone CountyIndiana2,900 to 6,00031.912
St. Joseph CountyMichigan3,600 to 5,90041.6None billed locally
Blount CountyAlabama3,500 to 5,70041.6None billed locally
Tuscola CountyMichigan3,600 to 5,70043.9None billed locally
Cass CountyMichigan3,300 to 5,60042.5None billed locally
Coffee CountyTennessee4,200 to 5,60053.115
Butler CountyKansas3,200 to 5,40039.817
Washington CountyOklahoma3,000 to 5,00041.4None billed locally
Henry CountyIndiana3,200 to 5,00056.6None billed locally
Osage CountyOklahoma3,200 to 4,90038.128
Lawrence CountyIndiana2,800 to 4,80054.179
Burnet CountyTexas2,900 to 4,80031.556
Bedford CountyTennessee3,400 to 4,60055.2None billed locally
Franklin CountyTennessee3,000 to 4,50040.8None billed locally
Warren CountyTennessee3,200 to 4,20050.0None billed locally
Cheatham CountyTennessee2,700 to 4,20048.1None billed locally
Chilton CountyAlabama2,700 to 4,20046.4None billed locally
Calumet CountyWisconsin2,500 to 4,10024.0None billed locally
Caldwell CountyTexas2,300 to 3,80033.4None billed locally
Riley CountyKansas1,600 to 3,60033.6228
Hill CountyTexas2,200 to 3,40039.5None billed locally
Iosco CountyMichigan2,100 to 3,30055.7None billed locally
Washington CountyIndiana2,000 to 2,90057.3None billed locally
White CountyTennessee2,500 to 2,90051.5None billed locally
Montgomery CountyKansas1,900 to 2,90041.0None billed locally
Crawford CountyKansas1,800 to 2,90050.738
Daviess CountyIndiana1,900 to 2,80036.2None billed locally
Jennings CountyIndiana1,900 to 2,80068.3None billed locally
Clay CountyIndiana1,700 to 2,70041.2None billed locally
Hickman CountyTennessee2,000 to 2,60067.8None billed locally
Randolph CountyIndiana1,600 to 2,50051.4None billed locally
DeKalb CountyTennessee1,800 to 2,20056.3None billed locally
Sumner CountyKansas1,300 to 2,10054.732
Humphreys CountyTennessee1,500 to 2,00052.5None billed locally
Arenac CountyMichigan1,200 to 1,90049.6None billed locally
Pottawatomie CountyKansas1,100 to 1,80031.4None billed locally
Gulf CountyFlorida1,100 to 1,50041.5None billed locally
Cannon CountyTennessee1,200 to 1,50043.7None billed locally
Nowata CountyOklahoma690 to 1,10060.7None billed locally
Warren CountyIndiana570 to 91037.7None billed locally

44 of the 107 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 18.2% to 23.2%, five points above today, about 77,500 to 147,100 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 65% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

24,400new lung cancers
15,800found at a late stage
14,200lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at Ascension Health today

Clinicians at Ascension Health locations billed 2,567 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 5,200 to 15,100 screenings a year.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 9,873 primary care clinicians, 194 pulmonologists and 127 thoracic surgeons practicing at Ascension Health locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to Ascension Health by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (50%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (66%).

104 acute care hospitals

  • Ascension St. Vincent HospitalIndianapolis, IN
  • Saint Thomas West HospitalNashville, TN
  • Via Christi Hospital WichitaMulvane, KS
  • Ascension Sacred Heart PensacolaPensacola, FL
  • Ascension St John HospitalDetroit, MI
  • Ascension Providence HospitalSouthfield, MI
  • Presence St. Joseph Medical CenterJoliet, IL
  • St. John Medical CenterTulsa, OK
  • St Vincents BirminghamBirmingham, AL
  • Ascension Macomb-Oakland HospitalWarren, MI
  • Ascension Seton Medical CenterAustin, TX
  • Ascension Columbia St Mary's Hospital Milwaukee CaMilwaukee, WI

And 92 more acute care hospitals.

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of Ascension Health patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See Ascension Health's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review