oatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026Carilion Clinic
Lung screening gap across 18 counties in Virginia and West Virginia
About 770 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 64% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.
Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.
Where the eligible adults live
The counties where most of Carilion Clinic's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.
Adults likely eligible, per neighborhood
Acute care hospital in this system
Counties in the service area
| County | State | Adults likely eligible | Lung cancer deaths per 100k | Medicare screens billed locally, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke County | Virginia | 4,300 to 8,100 | 28.8 | 1,290 |
| Roanoke city | Virginia | 5,200 to 7,400 | 43.4 | None billed locally |
| Bedford County | Virginia | 4,500 to 7,400 | — | None billed locally |
| Mercer County | West Virginia | 4,500 to 7,000 | 44.0 | 53 |
| Pittsylvania County | Virginia | 4,500 to 5,900 | 35.4 | None billed locally |
| Montgomery County | Virginia | 2,900 to 5,800 | 25.7 | 196 |
| Franklin County | Virginia | 3,600 to 5,400 | 34.8 | 16 |
| Henry County | Virginia | 3,600 to 4,800 | 37.0 | None billed locally |
| Tazewell County | Virginia | 2,800 to 3,700 | 42.5 | 64 |
| Pulaski County | Virginia | 2,100 to 3,200 | 41.6 | None billed locally |
| Botetourt County | Virginia | 1,900 to 3,200 | 33.6 | None billed locally |
| Carroll County | Virginia | 2,300 to 2,900 | 35.1 | None billed locally |
| Wythe County | Virginia | 1,900 to 2,600 | 39.0 | None billed locally |
| Rockbridge County | Virginia | 1,300 to 2,200 | 34.8 | None billed locally |
| Monroe County | West Virginia | 1,000 to 1,700 | 48.0 | None billed locally |
| Grayson County | Virginia | 1,300 to 1,600 | 43.0 | 27 |
| Floyd County | Virginia | 1,000 to 1,500 | 28.4 | None billed locally |
| Giles County | Virginia | 1,000 to 1,500 | 49.0 | 100 |
11 of the 18 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.
What closing the gap would mean
If screening in these counties rose from 18.1% to 23.1%, five points above today, about 2,500 to 3,800 more people would be screened each year.
In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 64% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.
Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.
Each year in these counties
NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.
Screening at Carilion Clinic today
Clinicians at Carilion Clinic locations billed 1,380 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 2,500 to 6,200 screenings a year.
Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 1,240 primary care clinicians, 21 pulmonologists and 10 thoracic surgeons practicing at Carilion Clinic locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.
CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to Carilion Clinic by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (45%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (59%).
7 acute care hospitals
- Carilion Medical CenterRoanoke, VA
- Carilion New River Valley Medical CenterChristiansburg, VA
- Carilion Franklin Memorial HospitalRocky Mount, VA
- Carilion Giles Community HospitalPearisburg, VA
- Carilion Rockbridge Community HospLexington, VA
- Carilion Tazewell Community HospitalTazewell, VA
- Carilion Roanoke Community HospitalRoanoke, VA
Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion
LungIQ Find
Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.
LungNAV Reach
An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.
LungAI Second opinion
Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.
LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.How we estimate the gap
Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of Carilion Clinic patients and contain no patient information.
- Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
- Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
- Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
- Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
- Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
- Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.
LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.
See Carilion Clinic's own numbers
In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.
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