Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

Mayo Clinic Health System

Lung screening gap across 35 counties in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin

330,000to630,000adults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 6,000 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 61% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
CANVUTNMAZ
35 counties25 acute care hospitalsService areaShowing the Arizona region; all regions are mapped below.
390,000 to 760,000adults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
3,500lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
17.0%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of Mayo Clinic Health System's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

Arizona

Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin

Florida

Adults likely eligible, per neighborhood

0+190+250+290+340+400+480+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
Maricopa CountyArizona154,600 to 342,70023.52,977
Hennepin CountyMinnesota42,200 to 87,20023.73,832
Duval CountyFlorida45,900 to 71,90035.41,673
Pinal CountyArizona22,200 to 39,60023.9None billed locally
Dakota CountyMinnesota16,500 to 31,60023.926
Yavapai CountyArizona14,500 to 26,70026.974
St. Johns CountyFlorida12,900 to 24,10024.9164
Mohave CountyArizona17,300 to 23,70039.1119
Clay CountyFlorida10,900 to 18,30036.922
Olmsted CountyMinnesota5,600 to 11,10025.8950
La Crosse CountyWisconsin4,900 to 8,70032.0489
Eau Claire CountyWisconsin4,100 to 7,40029.8785
Chippewa CountyWisconsin3,800 to 5,40029.5None billed locally
Rice CountyMinnesota3,000 to 4,80031.2None billed locally
Barron CountyWisconsin2,800 to 4,20036.252
Blue Earth CountyMinnesota2,500 to 4,10030.385
Goodhue CountyMinnesota2,600 to 3,80033.4None billed locally
Monroe CountyWisconsin2,700 to 3,80040.0None billed locally
Winona CountyMinnesota2,100 to 3,70035.7None billed locally
Pierce CountyWisconsin1,900 to 3,30026.8None billed locally
Dunn CountyWisconsin2,000 to 3,20027.4None billed locally
Mower CountyMinnesota2,000 to 3,00031.862
Steele CountyMinnesota1,800 to 2,80030.8None billed locally
Freeborn CountyMinnesota1,800 to 2,70037.148
Trempealeau CountyWisconsin1,700 to 2,50028.8None billed locally
Nicollet CountyMinnesota1,400 to 2,40019.8None billed locally
Le Sueur CountyMinnesota1,500 to 2,30033.7None billed locally
Wabasha CountyMinnesota1,200 to 2,00036.4None billed locally
Martin CountyMinnesota1,100 to 1,80038.3None billed locally
Winneshiek CountyIowa920 to 1,80025.330
Fillmore CountyMinnesota1,200 to 1,70026.4None billed locally
Dodge CountyMinnesota900 to 1,50022.9None billed locally
Waseca CountyMinnesota1,000 to 1,50029.8None billed locally
Faribault CountyMinnesota830 to 1,30031.4None billed locally
Watonwan CountyMinnesota520 to 91041.3None billed locally

19 of the 35 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 17.0% to the national rate of 18.2%, about 4,900 to 9,400 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 61% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

6,000new lung cancers
3,600found at a late stage
3,500lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at Mayo Clinic Health System today

Clinicians at Mayo Clinic Health System locations billed 2,448 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 5,100 to 13,700 screenings a year.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 5,068 primary care clinicians, 212 pulmonologists and 118 thoracic surgeons practicing at Mayo Clinic Health System locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to Mayo Clinic Health System by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (52%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (63%).

25 acute care hospitals

  • Mayo Clinic Hospital RochesterRochester, MN
  • Mayo Clinic HospitalPhoenix, AZ
  • Mayo Clinic FloridaJacksonville, FL
  • Kingman Regional Medical CenterKingman, AZ
  • MCHS Eau Claire HospitalEau Claire, WI
  • MCHS - Southwest Minnesota RegionMankato, MN
  • MCHS Franciscan Healthcare IncLa Crosse, WI
  • Mayo Clinic Health System Albert Lea and AustinAlbert Lea, MN
  • Mayo Clinic Health System-FairmontFairmont, MN
  • Mayo Clinic Health System - Red WingRed Wing, MN
  • Mchs-Chippewa ValleyBloomer, WI
  • Mchs-Franciscan SpartaSparta, WI

And 13 more acute care hospitals.

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of Mayo Clinic Health System patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See Mayo Clinic Health System's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review