Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

Mercy

Lung screening gap across 49 counties in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma

230,000to430,000adults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 4,600 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 64% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
TXMOTNILIANEINARMSOKALKS
49 counties37 acute care hospitalsService areaShowing the Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma region; all regions are mapped below.
280,000 to 510,000adults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
2,900lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
16.6%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of Mercy's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma

Indiana

Adults likely eligible, per neighborhood

0+180+250+300+360+420+510+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
St. Louis CountyMissouri44,500 to 96,00032.61,889
Oklahoma CountyOklahoma33,200 to 67,80038.12,043
St. Charles CountyMissouri17,200 to 36,70032.2264
St. Louis cityMissouri13,700 to 26,60039.92,775
Greene CountyMissouri14,600 to 25,00037.3608
Cleveland CountyOklahoma11,600 to 23,00033.1148
Benton CountyArkansas10,500 to 22,90030.983
Jefferson CountyMissouri13,500 to 21,40048.0295
St. Clair CountyIllinois12,000 to 19,80039.51,097
Washington CountyArkansas9,200 to 17,90030.225
Sebastian CountyArkansas6,700 to 12,10043.4577
Canadian CountyOklahoma6,900 to 11,90032.5None billed locally
Jasper CountyMissouri7,000 to 10,40043.8None billed locally
Franklin CountyMissouri6,500 to 10,40046.135
Christian CountyMissouri4,500 to 7,70035.7None billed locally
Crawford CountyArkansas3,500 to 6,30053.8None billed locally
St. Francois CountyMissouri4,700 to 6,10071.2182
Newton CountyMissouri3,700 to 5,70044.8359
Lincoln CountyMissouri3,700 to 5,10051.3None billed locally
Le Flore CountyOklahoma3,600 to 4,70056.6None billed locally
Logan CountyOklahoma2,800 to 4,60035.3None billed locally
Carter CountyOklahoma3,000 to 4,50051.0None billed locally
Stone CountyMissouri2,700 to 4,20036.9None billed locally
Sequoyah CountyOklahoma3,200 to 4,10070.6None billed locally
Howell CountyMissouri3,100 to 3,90049.4125
Barry CountyMissouri2,700 to 3,80047.7None billed locally
Lawrence CountyMissouri2,600 to 3,60044.8None billed locally
Webster CountyMissouri2,600 to 3,40048.3None billed locally
Laclede CountyMissouri2,700 to 3,40058.2None billed locally
Pontotoc CountyOklahoma2,000 to 3,30044.020
Carroll CountyArkansas1,900 to 3,30042.1None billed locally
Pulaski CountyMissouri1,700 to 3,00044.9None billed locally
Monroe CountyIllinois1,500 to 2,80031.8None billed locally
Garvin CountyOklahoma1,700 to 2,70052.5None billed locally
Washington CountyMissouri2,000 to 2,40067.1None billed locally
Logan CountyArkansas1,500 to 2,40050.7None billed locally
Ste. Genevieve CountyMissouri1,200 to 2,00033.0None billed locally
Perry CountyIndiana1,300 to 1,90031.1None billed locally
Franklin CountyArkansas1,200 to 1,90059.2None billed locally
Perry CountyMissouri1,200 to 1,90041.3None billed locally
Wright CountyMissouri1,500 to 1,80040.3None billed locally
Cherokee CountyKansas1,300 to 1,80054.3None billed locally
Gasconade CountyMissouri1,000 to 1,70040.5None billed locally
Kingfisher CountyOklahoma760 to 1,50039.2None billed locally
Murray CountyOklahoma920 to 1,40058.7None billed locally
Scott CountyArkansas650 to 1,10055.0None billed locally
Johnston CountyOklahoma750 to 1,10056.7None billed locally
Blaine CountyOklahoma500 to 1,00047.0None billed locally
Love CountyOklahoma690 to 1,00059.5None billed locally

33 of the 49 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 16.6% to the national rate of 18.2%, about 4,500 to 8,200 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 64% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

4,600new lung cancers
2,900found at a late stage
2,900lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at Mercy today

Clinicians at Mercy locations billed 1,523 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 3,300 to 9,300 screenings a year.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 3,544 primary care clinicians, 81 pulmonologists and 33 thoracic surgeons practicing at Mercy locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to Mercy by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (54%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (64%).

37 acute care hospitals

  • Mercy Hospital - St. LouisSaint Louis, MO
  • Mercy Hospital SouthSaint Louis, MO
  • Mercy Hospital SpringfieldSpringfield, MO
  • Mercy Hospital OkcOklahoma City, OK
  • Mercy Hospital Fort SmithFort Smith, AR
  • Mercy Hospital JoplinJoplin, MO
  • Mercy Medical CenterRogers, AR
  • Mercy Hospital JeffersonFestus, MO
  • Mercy Hospital ArdmoreArdmore, OK
  • Mercy Hospital - WashingtonWashington, MO
  • Mercy Hospital AdaAda, OK
  • Mercy Hospital LebanonLebanon, MO

And 25 more acute care hospitals.

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of Mercy patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See Mercy's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review