Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

Nemours Childrens Health

Lung screening gap across 16 counties in Delaware, Florida, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania

310,000to520,000adults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 6,100 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 63% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
VANYMDNJPA
16 counties2 acute care hospitalsService areaShowing the Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania region; all regions are mapped below.
380,000 to 660,000adults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
3,500lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
20.0%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of Nemours Childrens Health's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania

Florida

Adults likely eligible, per neighborhood

0+180+250+300+360+430+520+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
Philadelphia CountyPennsylvania80,700 to 117,80035.12,930
Orange CountyFlorida52,000 to 105,20024.61,512
Volusia CountyFlorida33,900 to 56,30036.8866
Delaware CountyPennsylvania23,900 to 48,00031.0648
Ocean CountyNew Jersey31,300 to 47,80032.2426
New Castle CountyDelaware22,500 to 46,70032.2405
Lancaster CountyPennsylvania28,100 to 46,40026.8805
York CountyPennsylvania26,100 to 40,70034.61,173
Burlington CountyNew Jersey18,100 to 34,50027.6671
Osceola CountyFlorida16,600 to 31,20026.9158
Atlantic CountyNew Jersey13,400 to 21,40031.2398
Kent CountyDelaware8,800 to 14,80038.5805
Flagler CountyFlorida8,100 to 12,90033.4128
Lebanon CountyPennsylvania7,800 to 12,60032.528
Highlands CountyFlorida7,000 to 11,80034.935
Cecil CountyMaryland5,800 to 7,40041.4None billed locally

1 of the 16 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 20.0% to 25.0%, five points above today, about 19,200 to 32,800 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 63% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

6,100new lung cancers
3,800found at a late stage
3,500lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at Nemours Childrens Health today

Public Medicare claims do not attribute lung screening reads to Nemours Childrens Health locations. Radiologists who read for a health system often bill through a separate radiology group, so Nemours Childrens Health's screening volume is best measured from its own records.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 523 primary care clinicians, 6 pulmonologists and 7 thoracic surgeons practicing at Nemours Childrens Health locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to Nemours Childrens Health by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (53%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (63%).

2 acute care hospitals

  • Alfred I Dupont Hosp for ChildrenWilmington, DE
  • Nemours Childrens HospitalOrlando, FL

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of Nemours Childrens Health patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See Nemours Childrens Health's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review