Missing Millions · 2026 estimate

Virginia is missing 290,800 lung cancer screenings.

About 1 in 10 adults ages 50 to 80 in Virginia qualifies for lung cancer screening and hasn't been screened. Find your county below.

356,400adults qualify for screening under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
18.4%were screened, 27th of 51 (American Lung Association, 2025); 18.2% nationally
15,803low-dose CT screening scans billed to Medicare fee-for-service by Virginia providers in 2024

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates 2025; CDC PLACES 2025; USPSTF 2021; American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025; CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271). Modeled estimates; see methodology below.

The gap, county by county

Shade shows how many adults ages 50 to 80 are missing screening. Select a county.

Fairfax County

24,000

missing lung cancer screenings (estimate)

  • Qualify for screening29,400
  • Adults 50 to 80 missing screening1 in 15
  • Medicare low-dose CT scans, 20241,080
Open the Fairfax County page

Every Virginia county, ranked

Ranked by estimated missing screenings. Select a column to sort.
1Fairfax County24,00029,4001 in 151,080
2Virginia Beach city14,00017,1001 in 10211
3Prince William County13,00015,9001 in 1128
4Chesterfield County12,00014,7001 in 111,147
5Henrico County10,30012,6001 in 111,392
6Loudoun County8,90010,9001 in 1513
7Chesapeake city8,20010,0001 in 10302
8Richmond city7,1008,6001 in 9665
9Norfolk city6,8008,4001 in 91,110
10Newport News city6,0007,3001 in 91,180
11Spotsylvania County5,2006,3001 in 100
12Hampton city5,0006,1001 in 9198
13Stafford County4,3005,3001 in 110
14Roanoke city4,2005,2001 in 80
15Hanover County4,1005,1001 in 110
16Portsmouth city3,9004,8001 in 8199
17Bedford County3,7004,5001 in 90
18Frederick County3,7004,5001 in 100
19Pittsylvania County3,7004,5001 in 70
20Suffolk city3,7004,5001 in 999
21Augusta County3,6004,5001 in 9550
22Roanoke County3,5004,3001 in 101,290
23Arlington County3,4004,2001 in 1869
24Rockingham County3,4004,2001 in 9179
25Alexandria city3,2003,9001 in 140
26Franklin County2,9003,6001 in 816
27Henry County2,9003,6001 in 70
28Albemarle County2,8003,5001 in 14501
29James City County2,7003,2001 in 13144
30Washington County2,6003,2001 in 864
31Campbell County2,6003,1001 in 876
32Fauquier County2,5003,1001 in 1141
33Montgomery County2,4002,9001 in 11196
34Shenandoah County2,3002,8001 in 80
35Danville city2,3002,8001 in 60
36Tazewell County2,2002,8001 in 764
37Culpeper County2,1002,5001 in 9174
38Louisa County2,1002,5001 in 80
39Halifax County2,0002,5001 in 7213
40Wise County2,0002,5001 in 60
41Lynchburg city2,0002,5001 in 1037
42Accomack County1,9002,4001 in 80
43York County1,9002,4001 in 120
44Carroll County1,9002,3001 in 70
45Warren County1,8002,2001 in 80
46Gloucester County1,8002,2001 in 90
47Pulaski County1,7002,1001 in 80
48Mecklenburg County1,7002,1001 in 80
49Isle of Wight County1,7002,1001 in 90
50Smyth County1,7002,1001 in 70
51Orange County1,6002,0001 in 90
52Russell County1,6001,9001 in 70
53Amherst County1,6001,9001 in 80
54Wythe County1,5001,9001 in 70
55Botetourt County1,5001,9001 in 100
56Petersburg city1,5001,8001 in 70
57Caroline County1,4001,7001 in 80
58Lee County1,4001,7001 in 60
59Powhatan County1,4001,7001 in 100
60Buchanan County1,4001,7001 in 60
61Prince George County1,3001,6001 in 90
62Page County1,3001,6001 in 70
63Scott County1,3001,6001 in 70
64Dinwiddie County1,3001,6001 in 80
65Westmoreland County1,2001,5001 in 70
66Hopewell city1,2001,5001 in 60
67Fluvanna County1,1001,4001 in 100
68Manassas city1,1001,4001 in 1073
69Patrick County1,1001,3001 in 70
70Rockbridge County1,1001,3001 in 90
71Goochland County1,1001,3001 in 120
72Grayson County1,1001,3001 in 627
73New Kent County1,1001,3001 in 100
74Winchester city1,1001,3001 in 81,153
75King George County1,0001,2001 in 90
76Harrisonburg city1,0001,2001 in 90
77Staunton city1,0001,2001 in 90
78Buckingham County9901,2001 in 70
79Southampton County9601,2001 in 80
80Waynesboro city9601,2001 in 80
81Charlottesville city9401,2001 in 112,607
82Salem city9201,1001 in 100
83Brunswick County9201,1001 in 70
84Greene County9201,1001 in 90
85Dickenson County8901,1001 in 60
86Alleghany County8601,0001 in 70
87Nottoway County8501,0001 in 70
88Giles County8501,0001 in 8100
89Bristol city8401,0001 in 70
90Floyd County8201,0001 in 80
91Appomattox County8101,0001 in 80
92Prince Edward County7909601 in 90
93Amelia County7709501 in 70
94King William County7709401 in 90
95Nelson County7709401 in 90
96Martinsville city7308901 in 60
97Fredericksburg city7208801 in 11586
98Charlotte County7208801 in 60
99Lunenburg County7208801 in 70
100Northampton County6708201 in 90
101Madison County6608101 in 90
102Northumberland County6407801 in 100
103Greensville County6307701 in 60
104Colonial Heights city6207601 in 100
105Essex County6207601 in 719
106Lancaster County6107401 in 90
107Clarke County6007401 in 110
108Fairfax city5707001 in 130
109Sussex County5606901 in 70
110Middlesex County5506801 in 90
111Cumberland County5106201 in 80
112Manassas Park city5106201 in 90
113Richmond County4605601 in 70
114Charles City County4405401 in 70
115Mathews County4405401 in 90
116Poquoson city4205101 in 110
117King and Queen County3904801 in 80
118Rappahannock County3804701 in 90
119Franklin city3804701 in 70
120Radford city3604401 in 90
121Galax city3604401 in 60
122Surry County3504301 in 90
123Bland County3504301 in 80
124Covington city3204001 in 60
125Williamsburg city3203901 in 130
126Emporia city2903501 in 70
127Bath County2803401 in 60
128Craig County2603201 in 80
129Buena Vista city2603201 in 80
130Falls Church city2503001 in 190
131Norton city1802201 in 60
132Lexington city1201501 in 140
133Highland County1201501 in 100

Methodology

How we estimate the gap

A modeled estimate from public data only. It is not a count of patients and contains no patient information.

missing = adults 50 to 80 × county smoking rate × national eligibility factor × (1 − state screening rate)

  • Adults 50 to 80: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2025
  • Smoking: CDC PLACES 2025 release (Kentucky and Pennsylvania: 2024 release)
  • Eligibility: USPSTF 2021 criteria, scaled to about 14.5 million eligible adults nationally
  • Screening rates: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025
  • Who is missing: Census population estimates (age) and American Community Survey 2020 to 2024 (language)
  • Screening activity: CMS Medicare fee-for-service claims for low-dose CT (CPT 71271), 2024, by provider location

Estimates under 50 are shown as "fewer than 50"; others are rounded. Full methodology

Many of them are already your patients.

Oatmeal Health helps health systems and community health centers find, navigate, and screen the people who qualify, alongside the care teams you already have.

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