Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

CommonSpirit Health

Lung screening gap across 117 counties in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Washington

1.8Mto3.6Madults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 28,900 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 64% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
ORIDMTWANVCOUTWYNMAZ
117 counties136 acute care hospitalsService areaShowing the Arizona, California, Nevada and Oregon region; all regions are mapped below.
2.2M to 4.3Madults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
17,000lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
15.8%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of CommonSpirit Health's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

Arizona, California, Nevada and Oregon

Texas

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska

Washington

Georgia, Kentucky, Ohio and Tennessee

Utah

Plus 5 smaller areas listed in the table.

Adults likely eligible, per county

0+1,000+2,800+5,600+12,200+28,100+56,500+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
Los Angeles CountyCalifornia341,600 to 644,90019.75,864
Maricopa CountyArizona154,600 to 342,70023.52,977
Harris CountyTexas169,600 to 333,40023.52,976
San Diego CountyCalifornia99,700 to 208,80021.62,544
Orange CountyCalifornia96,000 to 202,70020.21,029
Clark CountyNevada112,900 to 186,10029.01,127
Riverside CountyCalifornia89,200 to 152,70023.8181
King CountyWashington47,700 to 137,00021.51,484
San Bernardino CountyCalifornia77,900 to 132,20024.3219
Santa Clara CountyCalifornia46,700 to 110,40017.01,718
Alameda CountyCalifornia47,000 to 97,20019.6333
Sacramento CountyCalifornia57,300 to 92,20024.91,363
Contra Costa CountyCalifornia36,300 to 75,20020.8941
Hamilton CountyOhio35,400 to 74,20035.21,956
Ventura CountyCalifornia29,200 to 60,50020.4399
Pierce CountyWashington32,700 to 57,30030.01,133
Fort Bend CountyTexas28,000 to 56,50018.1None billed locally
Snohomish CountyWashington26,700 to 54,30029.01,403
Kern CountyCalifornia34,900 to 52,10024.9239
San Francisco CountyCalifornia22,900 to 49,90021.6452
San Mateo CountyCalifornia19,700 to 48,80017.4623
El Paso CountyColorado22,700 to 47,50023.7350
Jefferson CountyColorado19,100 to 47,30019.0559
Denver CountyColorado18,200 to 46,60020.7333
Montgomery CountyTexas26,800 to 45,70029.517
Salt Lake CountyUtah25,300 to 45,30015.3138
San Joaquin CountyCalifornia29,100 to 44,30024.652
Pinal CountyArizona22,200 to 39,60023.9None billed locally
Douglas CountyNebraska22,600 to 39,30033.11,479
Pulaski CountyArkansas17,300 to 36,40036.81,926
Hamilton CountyTennessee19,500 to 36,10034.7856
Adams CountyColorado19,100 to 34,80024.1676
Fayette CountyKentucky14,400 to 29,60032.31,771
Santa Barbara CountyCalifornia13,800 to 28,10020.2566
Placer CountyCalifornia14,300 to 27,60022.223
Brazoria CountyTexas14,200 to 27,50032.2171
Yavapai CountyArizona14,500 to 26,70026.974
Mohave CountyArizona17,300 to 23,70039.1119
Boulder CountyColorado9,300 to 23,40015.3127
Weld CountyColorado12,700 to 22,20021.5None billed locally
Lancaster CountyNebraska11,100 to 21,10028.4933
San Luis Obispo CountyCalifornia10,200 to 20,20020.3367
Kitsap CountyWashington10,100 to 19,70025.7371
Santa Cruz CountyCalifornia9,100 to 18,60018.0404
Pueblo CountyColorado8,100 to 16,00030.8336
El Dorado CountyCalifornia8,100 to 15,40019.7101
Merced CountyCalifornia10,500 to 15,10023.9184
Shasta CountyCalifornia8,900 to 12,90034.9705
Davis CountyUtah6,700 to 12,50015.555
Brazos CountyTexas6,100 to 12,40025.5537
Sarpy CountyNebraska6,500 to 12,20030.5306
Yolo CountyCalifornia5,700 to 12,10024.1None billed locally
Garland CountyArkansas6,100 to 11,60038.5185
Douglas CountyOregon6,500 to 10,70039.0105
Tuscarawas CountyOhio5,700 to 9,50040.0None billed locally
Nevada CountyCalifornia4,700 to 8,60021.054
Madison CountyKentucky4,900 to 8,60050.313
Pottawattamie CountyIowa5,400 to 7,90045.6121
Burleigh CountyNorth Dakota3,700 to 7,60024.4474
Jefferson CountyOhio4,200 to 7,50051.064
Clallam CountyWashington4,200 to 7,30031.5None billed locally
Angelina CountyTexas5,000 to 7,00038.823
Laurel CountyKentucky4,700 to 6,50059.3None billed locally
Walker CountyGeorgia4,100 to 6,20041.1None billed locally
Umatilla CountyOregon3,600 to 6,00034.2None billed locally
Catoosa CountyGeorgia3,600 to 5,70034.9None billed locally
Mason CountyWashington3,600 to 5,60038.3None billed locally
Jessamine CountyKentucky2,600 to 5,50038.9None billed locally
Nelson CountyKentucky2,800 to 5,00044.6None billed locally
Broomfield CountyColorado2,100 to 5,00021.039
Polk CountyTexas4,100 to 4,90066.630
La Plata CountyColorado2,500 to 4,80016.3109
Tehama CountyCalifornia3,300 to 4,60037.9None billed locally
Hall CountyNebraska2,700 to 4,60028.9441
Fremont CountyColorado3,000 to 4,50031.0None billed locally
Calaveras CountyCalifornia2,700 to 4,20031.817
Siskiyou CountyCalifornia2,500 to 3,70030.2191
Hot Spring CountyArkansas2,200 to 3,60046.6None billed locally
Jefferson CountyWashington1,700 to 3,50018.9None billed locally
Buffalo CountyNebraska1,800 to 3,30030.4120
Marion CountyTennessee2,600 to 3,20054.0None billed locally
Finney CountyKansas1,500 to 3,00028.1None billed locally
Montgomery CountyKentucky2,100 to 3,00064.9None billed locally
Morrison CountyMinnesota2,100 to 2,80028.3None billed locally
Taylor CountyKentucky1,700 to 2,70051.6None billed locally
Ford CountyKansas1,300 to 2,70024.9None billed locally
Grimes CountyTexas1,900 to 2,60029.2None billed locally
Summit CountyColorado1,100 to 2,300—None billed locally
Morgan CountyColorado1,200 to 2,30026.2None billed locally
Conway CountyArkansas1,400 to 2,30049.1None billed locally
Stark CountyNorth Dakota1,300 to 2,20028.6None billed locally
Williams CountyNorth Dakota1,500 to 2,10032.412
Hubbard CountyMinnesota1,300 to 2,10026.6None billed locally
Burleson CountyTexas1,100 to 1,80045.6None billed locally
Washington CountyNebraska940 to 1,70029.5None billed locally
Otoe CountyNebraska770 to 1,30042.5None billed locally
Harrison CountyIowa860 to 1,30032.7None billed locally
Ramsey CountyNorth Dakota610 to 1,10042.7None billed locally
McLean CountyNorth Dakota540 to 1,00020.3None billed locally
Madison CountyTexas640 to 1,00047.9None billed locally
Barnes CountyNorth Dakota530 to 1,00033.3None billed locally
Colfax CountyNebraska460 to 880—None billed locally
San Augustine CountyTexas720 to 86052.6None billed locally
Grant CountyKansas250 to 680—None billed locally
Pierce CountyNebraska340 to 590—None billed locally
Wilkin CountyMinnesota370 to 52031.7None billed locally
Ransom CountyNorth Dakota290 to 520—None billed locally
Sherman CountyKansas280 to 510—None billed locally
Dewey CountySouth Dakota390 to 460—None billed locally
Dickey CountyNorth Dakota230 to 460—None billed locally
Stevens CountyKansas260 to 440—None billed locally
Lake of the Woods CountyMinnesota260 to 380—None billed locally
Adams CountyIowa230 to 370—None billed locally
Emmons CountyNorth Dakota200 to 350—None billed locally
Foster CountyNorth Dakota170 to 300—None billed locally
McIntosh CountyNorth Dakota150 to 280—None billed locally
Rawlins CountyKansas150 to 260—None billed locally

53 of the 117 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 15.8% to the national rate of 18.2%, about 52,400 to 101,400 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 64% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

28,900new lung cancers
18,400found at a late stage
17,300lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at CommonSpirit Health today

Clinicians at CommonSpirit Health locations billed 4,227 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 9,200 to 26,400 screenings a year.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 9,083 primary care clinicians, 237 pulmonologists and 176 thoracic surgeons practicing at CommonSpirit Health locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to CommonSpirit Health by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (54%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (65%).

136 acute care hospitals

  • CHI St Lukes Health Baylor Med CtrHouston, TX
  • St. Josephs Hospital & Medical CtrPhoenix, AZ
  • Centura Penrose HospitalColorado Springs, CO
  • Memorial Health Care System Inc.Chattanooga, TN
  • Chandler Regional Medical CenterChandler, AZ
  • CHI Health Creighton University Medical Center - BOmaha, NE
  • Bakersfield Memorial HospitalBakersfield, CA
  • Mercy San Juan Medical CenterCarmichael, CA
  • CHI St Vincent InfirmaryLittle Rock, AR
  • Good Samaritan HospitalCincinnati, OH
  • St. Josephs Medical CenterStockton, CA
  • St Joseph Medical CenterTacoma, WA

And 124 more acute care hospitals.

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of CommonSpirit Health patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See CommonSpirit Health's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review