Missing Millions · 2026 estimate
King County, Washington is missing 40,200 lung cancer screenings.
About 1 in 17 adults ages 50 to 80 here qualifies for lung cancer screening and hasn't been screened. Low-dose CT finds lung cancer early, when it is most treatable.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates 2025; CDC PLACES 2025; USPSTF 2021; American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025. Modeled estimates; see methodology below.
How King County compares
Adults ages 50 to 80 who qualify for screening and haven't been screened.
Modeled estimates; national figures from American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
Closing the gap
Raising screening here to the national rate of 18.2% would mean about 1,100 more people screened each year.
Illustrative estimate based on the county's estimated eligible population.
Who is missing
Age
58% are ages 50 to 64
Of adults ages 50 to 80 here, 58% are 50 to 64 and 42% are 65 to 80. Younger adults are often still working and outside Medicare.
Smoking history
43% quit smoking
Of adults here who likely qualify, 43% are former smokers. They qualify for 15 years after quitting, but quit dates are rarely in the medical record, so they are the easiest to miss.
Language
12% limited English
12% of adults here speak English less than very well, most often an Asian or Pacific Island language.
Screening today
1,484 Medicare scans
Providers based in King County billed 1,484 low-dose CT screening scans to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024, across 47 billing providers. See the local network in the Lung Screening Atlas
Sources: age, U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates 2025; smoking history, University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026); language, American Community Survey 2020 to 2024 (table B16004), adults 18 and older; screening, CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271), by billing provider location.
Lung cancer in King County
Each year, on average. Screening finds lung cancer early, when it is most treatable.
Diagnosed
996 a year
New lung and bronchus cancers, 2019 to 2023 average.
Found late
64% at a late stage
About 640 a year are found after the cancer has spread, when it is hardest to treat.
Deaths
526 a year
Lung cancer deaths, 2020 to 2024 average.
Death rate
21.5 per 100,000
Lung cancer deaths, age-adjusted, compared with 30.2 nationally.
Source: National Cancer Institute and CDC, State Cancer Profiles. Counts under 16 a year are suppressed by NCI and not shown.
Health systems serving King County
Health systems whose patients come from King County, based on where their Medicare inpatients live. Each page shows the system's full service area, lung cancer data and screening today.
- Astria Health SystemScreening gap page
- CommonSpirit HealthScreening gap page
- Confluence HealthScreening gap page
- EvergreenHealthScreening gap page
- Island HospitalScreening gap page
- Jefferson HealthcareScreening gap page
- Multicare Health SystemScreening gap page
- Olympic Medical CenterScreening gap page
- Overlake Medical Center and ClinicsScreening gap page
- ProvidenceScreening gap page
- ScionHealthScreening gap page
- Seattle Childrens Hospital Research and FoundationScreening gap page
- Skagit Regional HealthScreening gap page
- Universal Health ServicesScreening gap page
- UW MedicineScreening gap page
Lung Screening Atlas: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 and the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
Other Washington counties
- Pierce County27,500 missing
- Snohomish County22,500 missing
- Spokane County17,500 missing
- Clark County16,000 missing
- Thurston County8,600 missing
- Kitsap County8,500 missing
- Yakima County7,800 missing
- Whatcom County6,900 missing
Methodology
How we estimate the gap
A modeled estimate from public data only. It is not a count of patients and contains no patient information.
missing = adults 50 to 80 × county smoking rate × national eligibility factor × (1 − state screening rate)
- Adults 50 to 80: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2025
- Smoking: CDC PLACES 2025 release (Kentucky and Pennsylvania: 2024 release)
- Eligibility: USPSTF 2021 criteria, scaled to about 14.5 million eligible adults nationally
- Screening rates: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025
- Who is missing: Census population estimates (age) and American Community Survey 2020 to 2024 (language)
- Screening activity: CMS Medicare fee-for-service claims for low-dose CT (CPT 71271), 2024, by provider location
- Lung cancer cases and deaths: National Cancer Institute and CDC, State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024)
- Smoking history: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026)
Estimates under 50 are shown as "fewer than 50"; others are rounded. Full methodology
Many of them are already your patients.
Oatmeal Health helps health systems and community health centers find, navigate, and screen the people who qualify, alongside the care teams you already have.
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A printable PDF with the local estimate, how it compares, who is missing, the local screening network, and our full methodology.
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