Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

Ardent Health Services

Lung screening gap across 41 counties in Idaho, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas

380,000to740,000adults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 5,900 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 64% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
TXLAAROK
41 counties26 acute care hospitalsService areaShowing the Texas region; all regions are mapped below.
440,000 to 850,000adults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
3,500lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
13.7%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of Ardent Health Services's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

Texas: Dallas area

New Jersey

New Mexico

Oklahoma

Texas: Randall area

Idaho

Plus 1 smaller areas listed in the table.

Adults likely eligible, per county

0+1,900+4,400+5,200+7,800+10,200+55,200+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
Dallas CountyTexas88,000 to 187,00026.52,029
Tarrant CountyTexas79,500 to 146,80027.7789
Bergen CountyNew Jersey28,500 to 74,40020.7908
Bernalillo CountyNew Mexico26,600 to 66,10018.9892
Tulsa CountyOklahoma29,800 to 56,50034.3784
Essex CountyNew Jersey32,500 to 55,20019.1402
Passaic CountyNew Jersey20,200 to 38,20021.8816
Bell CountyTexas13,900 to 22,40034.722
Santa Fe CountyNew Mexico6,700 to 19,00014.9161
Smith CountyTexas10,700 to 18,10030.71,272
Sandoval CountyNew Mexico6,300 to 14,50018.6None billed locally
Randall CountyTexas5,400 to 10,20028.919
Kaufman CountyTexas7,000 to 9,20042.7None billed locally
Gregg CountyTexas5,900 to 9,20035.5369
Potter CountyTexas5,800 to 9,10036.7145
Rogers CountyOklahoma5,400 to 8,80040.2None billed locally
Valencia CountyNew Mexico3,700 to 8,60025.1None billed locally
Henderson CountyTexas5,400 to 7,80049.9None billed locally
Wagoner CountyOklahoma4,700 to 7,70035.7None billed locally
Creek CountyOklahoma4,700 to 7,10048.9None billed locally
Chaves CountyNew Mexico2,900 to 6,20033.5None billed locally
Bannock CountyIdaho3,300 to 5,70026.178
Payne CountyOklahoma2,800 to 5,50035.3None billed locally
McKinley CountyNew Mexico5,500 to 5,2007.6None billed locally
Van Zandt CountyTexas3,800 to 5,10036.8None billed locally
Delaware CountyOklahoma3,600 to 5,00041.364
Osage CountyOklahoma3,200 to 4,90038.128
Wood CountyTexas3,100 to 4,60043.6None billed locally
Anderson CountyTexas3,400 to 4,50041.950
Rusk CountyTexas2,900 to 4,40042.4None billed locally
Cherokee CountyTexas3,000 to 4,30036.8None billed locally
Mayes CountyOklahoma2,800 to 4,00052.7None billed locally
Okmulgee CountyOklahoma2,500 to 3,70057.0None billed locally
Upshur CountyTexas2,500 to 3,60045.8None billed locally
Cibola CountyNew Mexico1,700 to 2,60017.6None billed locally
Panola CountyTexas1,300 to 1,90046.1None billed locally
Hutchinson CountyTexas960 to 1,80028.6None billed locally
Gray CountyTexas1,100 to 1,80045.5None billed locally
Camp CountyTexas760 to 1,10054.2None billed locally
Power CountyIdaho340 to 600—None billed locally
Carson CountyTexas270 to 550—None billed locally

24 of the 41 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 13.7% to the national rate of 18.2%, about 19,800 to 38,200 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 64% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

5,900new lung cancers
3,800found at a late stage
3,500lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at Ardent Health Services today

Clinicians at Ardent Health Services locations billed 78 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 160 to 470 screenings a year.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 924 primary care clinicians, 15 pulmonologists and 18 thoracic surgeons practicing at Ardent Health Services locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to Ardent Health Services by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (52%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (66%).

26 acute care hospitals

  • Hillcrest Medical CenterTulsa, OK
  • Baptist Saint Anthonys HospitalAmarillo, TX
  • UT Health East Texas TylerTyler, TX
  • Lovelace Medical Center- DowntownAlbuquerque, NM
  • Mountainside HospitalMontclair, NJ
  • Lovelace Womens HospitalAlbuquerque, NM
  • Hillcrest Hospital SouthTulsa, OK
  • Portneuf Medical CenterPocatello, ID
  • UT Heath AthensAthens, TX
  • Lovelace Westside HospitalAlbuquerque, NM
  • Hackensack Umc at Pascack ValleyWestwood, NJ
  • Seton Medical Center Harker HeightsHarker Heights, TX

And 14 more acute care hospitals.

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of Ardent Health Services patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See Ardent Health Services's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review