oatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026Catholic Health Systems
Lung screening gap across 5 counties in New York
About 1,400 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 64% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.
Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.
Where the eligible adults live
The counties where most of Catholic Health Systems's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.
Adults likely eligible, per neighborhood
Acute care hospital in this system
Counties in the service area
| County | Adults likely eligible | Lung cancer deaths per 100k | Medicare screens billed locally, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erie County | 40,300 to 68,300 | 32.4 | 1,944 |
| Niagara County | 10,900 to 16,900 | 37.5 | 443 |
| Chautauqua County | 6,900 to 10,200 | 38.8 | 144 |
| Cattaraugus County | 4,600 to 6,100 | 37.5 | 73 |
| Wyoming County | 2,300 to 3,100 | 36.7 | 142 |
Every county in the service area had Medicare lung screening reads billed locally in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.
What closing the gap would mean
If screening in these counties rose from 21.8% to 26.8%, five points above today, about 3,200 to 5,200 more people would be screened each year.
In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 64% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.
Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.
Each year in these counties
NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.
Screening at Catholic Health Systems today
Clinicians at Catholic Health Systems locations billed 336 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 1,200 to 3,200 screenings a year.
Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 531 primary care clinicians, 11 pulmonologists and 3 thoracic surgeons practicing at Catholic Health Systems locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.
CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to Catholic Health Systems by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (71%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (63%).
5 acute care hospitals
- Mercy Hospital of BuffaloBuffalo, NY
- Sisters of Charity HospitalBuffalo, NY
- Mount St. Marys HospitalLewiston, NY
- Kenmore Mercy HospitalKenmore, NY
- Bertrand Chaffee HospitalSpringville, NY
Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion
LungIQ Find
Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.
LungNAV Reach
An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.
LungAI Second opinion
Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.
LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.How we estimate the gap
Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of Catholic Health Systems patients and contain no patient information.
- Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
- Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
- Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
- Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
- Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
- Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.
LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.
See Catholic Health Systems's own numbers
In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.
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