Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

Trinity Health

Lung screening gap across 92 counties in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oregon and Pennsylvania

1.2Mto2.3Madults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 24,200 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 63% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
WIMOILMNSDOHNEINKSMIPA
92 counties97 acute care hospitalsService areaShowing the Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio region; all regions are mapped below.
1.5M to 2.8Madults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
14,000lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
19.7%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of Trinity Health's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York and Pennsylvania

Florida

California

Idaho and Oregon

Georgia

Plus 1 smaller areas listed in the table.

Adults likely eligible, per county

0+1,200+2,000+7,800+14,900+29,200+61,500+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
Cook CountyIllinois177,400 to 380,40026.98,348
Broward CountyFlorida82,900 to 180,90022.9830
Wayne CountyMichigan96,400 to 157,00037.13,271
Palm Beach CountyFlorida65,200 to 145,20022.3965
Hillsborough CountyFlorida57,900 to 122,50028.31,024
Oakland CountyMichigan48,800 to 119,90027.12,397
Philadelphia CountyPennsylvania80,700 to 117,80035.12,930
Franklin CountyOhio50,800 to 103,60032.73,426
Pinellas CountyFlorida49,700 to 101,80032.41,318
DuPage CountyIllinois29,700 to 72,70023.31,418
Montgomery CountyMaryland25,400 to 71,00015.92,276
Hartford CountyConnecticut33,200 to 63,40026.11,302
Polk CountyFlorida40,900 to 63,30034.6688
New Haven CountyConnecticut32,200 to 61,50028.71,487
Bucks CountyPennsylvania38,600 to 60,20027.5452
Fresno CountyCalifornia35,900 to 58,80023.7166
Prince George's CountyMaryland31,800 to 56,30020.5266
Kent CountyMichigan25,500 to 53,60032.02,461
Pasco CountyFlorida33,000 to 52,90036.4242
Will CountyIllinois27,000 to 51,00033.4553
Delaware CountyPennsylvania23,900 to 48,00031.0648
New Castle CountyDelaware22,500 to 46,70032.2405
Hampden CountyMassachusetts23,400 to 34,70032.9619
Polk CountyIowa19,900 to 34,50037.81,803
Onondaga CountyNew York18,500 to 33,60033.01,091
Ada CountyIdaho17,700 to 32,90023.2797
Washtenaw CountyMichigan10,800 to 29,20025.92,367
St. Joseph CountyIndiana12,500 to 24,70037.9245
Ottawa CountyMichigan10,800 to 24,00025.375
Albany CountyNew York11,000 to 21,50029.61,594
Livingston CountyMichigan9,200 to 20,00029.9None billed locally
Delaware CountyOhio7,800 to 18,50025.21,197
Saratoga CountyNew York9,700 to 18,10030.3276
Oneida CountyNew York11,300 to 17,40034.7510
Licking CountyOhio9,800 to 17,30040.7111
Muskegon CountyMichigan10,600 to 16,50043.0171
Jackson CountyMichigan8,800 to 15,50042.7478
Monroe CountyMichigan8,900 to 15,40039.5None billed locally
Litchfield CountyConnecticut7,800 to 15,00029.393
Fairfield CountyOhio7,900 to 14,90037.3None billed locally
Canyon CountyIdaho9,500 to 14,50027.034
Scott CountyIowa8,100 to 13,90033.8532
Rensselaer CountyNew York6,600 to 11,90038.6295
Rock Island CountyIllinois6,900 to 11,80035.1383
Schenectady CountyNew York6,400 to 11,00030.164
Lenawee CountyMichigan5,600 to 10,10037.6None billed locally
Tolland CountyConnecticut5,200 to 10,00026.9None billed locally
Black Hawk CountyIowa6,200 to 9,90035.4306
Madera CountyCalifornia6,900 to 9,60024.3None billed locally
Johnson CountyIowa4,500 to 9,10020.4901
Oswego CountyNew York6,700 to 9,00045.3None billed locally
Woodbury CountyIowa5,100 to 7,90043.2119
Dubuque CountyIowa4,500 to 7,80027.9305
Clarke CountyGeorgia3,700 to 7,40024.2236
Dallas CountyIowa3,500 to 5,70022.2195
Marshall CountyIndiana2,800 to 4,60037.1None billed locally
Clinton CountyIowa2,800 to 4,10044.4None billed locally
Cerro Gordo CountyIowa2,500 to 4,00027.9491
Warren CountyIowa2,300 to 3,90029.274
Jasper CountyIowa2,200 to 3,20037.0None billed locally
Oceana CountyMichigan1,800 to 3,00038.7None billed locally
Marion CountyIowa1,500 to 2,70031.9None billed locally
Malheur CountyOregon1,600 to 2,50033.6None billed locally
Sioux CountyIowa1,300 to 2,40018.5None billed locally
Franklin CountyGeorgia1,600 to 2,10047.2None billed locally
Greene CountyGeorgia1,200 to 2,00023.9None billed locally
Fayette CountyIowa1,200 to 1,80031.7None billed locally
Jackson CountyIowa1,200 to 1,80043.4None billed locally
Carroll CountyIowa1,100 to 1,70034.9None billed locally
Clayton CountyIowa1,200 to 1,70023.5None billed locally
Baker CountyOregon950 to 1,60041.0None billed locally
Delaware CountyIowa1,100 to 1,60031.0None billed locally
Hardin CountyIowa980 to 1,60028.6None billed locally
Mackinac CountyMichigan930 to 1,40039.6None billed locally
Kossuth CountyIowa810 to 1,40027.7None billed locally
Mercer CountyIllinois880 to 1,40057.9None billed locally
Madison CountyIowa860 to 1,30032.7None billed locally
Hamilton CountyIowa780 to 1,30030.5None billed locally
Appanoose CountyIowa920 to 1,20041.1None billed locally
O'Brien CountyIowa750 to 1,20032.4None billed locally
Chickasaw CountyIowa680 to 1,10030.7None billed locally
Hancock CountyIowa610 to 98027.6None billed locally
Mitchell CountyIowa580 to 93018.9None billed locally
Franklin CountyIowa580 to 92036.3None billed locally
Palo Alto CountyIowa470 to 77047.6None billed locally
Monroe CountyIowa420 to 68031.4None billed locally
Davis CountyIowa500 to 68037.6None billed locally
Van Buren CountyIowa490 to 66057.4None billed locally
Adair CountyIowa440 to 65030.8None billed locally
Decatur CountyIowa390 to 62048.4None billed locally
Wayne CountyIowa380 to 580—None billed locally
Ringgold CountyIowa260 to 45043.7None billed locally

42 of the 92 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 19.7% to 24.7%, five points above today, about 72,800 to 140,300 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 63% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

24,200new lung cancers
15,300found at a late stage
13,600lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at Trinity Health today

Clinicians at Trinity Health locations billed 6,626 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 13,300 to 37,200 screenings a year.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 10,182 primary care clinicians, 223 pulmonologists and 122 thoracic surgeons practicing at Trinity Health locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to Trinity Health by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (50%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (64%).

97 acute care hospitals

  • St. Josephs HospitalTampa, FL
  • Mercy Medical Center-Des MoinesDes Moines, IA
  • Morton Plant HospitalClearwater, FL
  • Mount Carmel HealthColumbus, OH
  • Loyola University Medical CenterMaywood, IL
  • St. Peters HospitalAlbany, NY
  • Trinity Health Ann ArborYpsilanti, MI
  • Winter Haven HospitalWinter Haven, FL
  • St. Josephs Hospital Health CenterSyracuse, NY
  • Saint Francis HospitalHartford, CT
  • Holy Cross HospitalSilver Spring, MD
  • St. Anthonys HospitalSaint Petersburg, FL

And 85 more acute care hospitals.

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of Trinity Health patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See Trinity Health's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review