Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

UPMC

Lung screening gap across 27 counties in Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania

240,000to390,000adults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 4,600 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 64% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
VANYMDOHWVNJPA
27 counties32 acute care hospitalsService area
300,000 to 480,000adults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
2,700lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
19.8%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of UPMC's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

Adults likely eligible, per neighborhood

0+170+230+280+340+400+490+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
Allegheny CountyPennsylvania61,300 to 109,10032.73,365
Lancaster CountyPennsylvania28,100 to 46,40026.8805
York CountyPennsylvania26,100 to 40,70034.61,173
Westmoreland CountyPennsylvania19,200 to 36,20032.6290
Dauphin CountyPennsylvania16,800 to 24,60030.0754
Erie CountyPennsylvania16,700 to 24,20038.4431
Cumberland CountyPennsylvania12,900 to 21,80030.3199
Washington CountyPennsylvania13,600 to 20,30035.2108
Butler CountyPennsylvania9,200 to 17,80029.715
Beaver CountyPennsylvania10,000 to 16,40036.4234
Cambria CountyPennsylvania9,300 to 13,20031.6172
Blair CountyPennsylvania8,600 to 11,60035.9170
Mercer CountyPennsylvania7,000 to 10,70037.0123
Lycoming CountyPennsylvania6,700 to 10,50037.2253
Chautauqua CountyNew York6,900 to 10,20038.8144
Adams CountyPennsylvania6,600 to 10,00031.7179
Lawrence CountyPennsylvania5,700 to 8,60033.4None billed locally
Crawford CountyPennsylvania6,100 to 8,20038.8106
Somerset CountyPennsylvania5,400 to 7,40029.2None billed locally
Venango CountyPennsylvania3,700 to 5,40042.538
Allegany CountyMaryland4,300 to 5,20036.1689
Bedford CountyPennsylvania3,600 to 4,90030.6None billed locally
Warren CountyPennsylvania2,800 to 4,10038.6None billed locally
Tioga CountyPennsylvania2,900 to 4,00034.6None billed locally
McKean CountyPennsylvania2,400 to 3,80046.4None billed locally
Clinton CountyPennsylvania2,400 to 3,30033.5None billed locally
Potter CountyPennsylvania1,300 to 1,80036.4None billed locally

8 of the 27 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 19.8% to 24.8%, five points above today, about 15,000 to 24,000 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 64% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

4,600new lung cancers
2,900found at a late stage
2,700lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at UPMC today

Clinicians at UPMC locations billed 3,389 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 9,200 to 24,400 screenings a year.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 5,637 primary care clinicians, 119 pulmonologists and 79 thoracic surgeons practicing at UPMC locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to UPMC by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (63%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (62%).

32 acute care hospitals

  • UPMC - Presbyterian ShadysidePittsburgh, PA
  • UPMC Pinnacle HospitalsHarrisburg, PA
  • UPMC HamotErie, PA
  • Altoona Regional Health SystemAltoona, PA
  • UPMC PassavantPittsburgh, PA
  • UPMC Magee-Womens HospitalPittsburgh, PA
  • UPMC Childrens Hospital of PghPittsburgh, PA
  • UPMC Mercy HospitalPittsburgh, PA
  • UPMC Chautauqua at WcaJamestown, NY
  • UPMC WilliamsportWilliamsport, PA
  • UPMC St MargaretPittsburgh, PA
  • Upmc-Western Maryland CorpCumberland, MD

And 20 more acute care hospitals.

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of UPMC patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See UPMC's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review