Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

Vanderbilt Health

Lung screening gap across 27 counties in Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee

150,000to270,000adults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 2,700 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 63% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
KYGAMOTNILARMSAL
27 counties4 acute care hospitalsService area
180,000 to 320,000adults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
1,700lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
15.9%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of Vanderbilt Health's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

Adults likely eligible, per neighborhood

0+200+280+340+400+470+580+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
Davidson CountyTennessee26,500 to 56,90033.33,252
Hamilton CountyTennessee19,500 to 36,10034.7856
Madison CountyAlabama15,900 to 34,40028.8881
Rutherford CountyTennessee14,900 to 25,60038.5242
Williamson CountyTennessee9,400 to 21,90021.323
Sumner CountyTennessee10,900 to 18,40039.412
Montgomery CountyTennessee9,300 to 14,10046.4241
Wilson CountyTennessee8,000 to 13,90034.538
Warren CountyKentucky5,900 to 11,50049.0105
Madison CountyTennessee6,200 to 9,70040.5305
Maury CountyTennessee6,300 to 9,40037.4388
Cumberland CountyTennessee6,100 to 7,90035.9None billed locally
Putnam CountyTennessee4,700 to 7,40049.3267
Robertson CountyTennessee4,800 to 7,00050.4None billed locally
Coffee CountyTennessee4,200 to 5,60053.115
Dickson CountyTennessee3,700 to 5,30052.726
Christian CountyKentucky3,400 to 5,30053.1174
Bedford CountyTennessee3,400 to 4,60055.2None billed locally
Franklin CountyTennessee3,000 to 4,50040.8None billed locally
Lawrence CountyTennessee3,400 to 4,40044.1None billed locally
Warren CountyTennessee3,200 to 4,20050.0None billed locally
Henry CountyTennessee2,800 to 3,80056.3298
Lincoln CountyTennessee2,600 to 3,70041.2None billed locally
Marshall CountyTennessee2,400 to 3,30052.8None billed locally
DeKalb CountyTennessee1,800 to 2,20056.3None billed locally
Smith CountyTennessee1,400 to 2,10054.7None billed locally
Moore CountyTennessee520 to 75029.9None billed locally

11 of the 27 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 15.9% to the national rate of 18.2%, about 4,200 to 7,400 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 63% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

2,700new lung cancers
1,700found at a late stage
1,700lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at Vanderbilt Health today

Clinicians at Vanderbilt Health locations billed 322 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 660 to 1,900 screenings a year.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 531 primary care clinicians, 5 pulmonologists and 5 thoracic surgeons practicing at Vanderbilt Health locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to Vanderbilt Health by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (51%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (65%).

4 acute care hospitals

  • Vanderbilt University Medical CenterNashville, TN
  • Vanderbilt Wilson County HospitalLebanon, TN
  • Vanderbilt Tullahoma-Harton HospitalTullahoma, TN
  • Vanderbilt Bedford County HospitalShelbyville, TN

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of Vanderbilt Health patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See Vanderbilt Health's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review