Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

HCA Healthcare

Lung screening gap across 146 counties in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Virginia

2.7Mto5.2Madults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 43,800 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 63% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
146 counties167 acute care hospitalsService areaShowing the Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia region; all regions are mapped below.
3.2M to 6.2Madults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
26,000lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
15.8%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of HCA Healthcare's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia

Texas

Arizona, California and Nevada

Colorado

Kansas and Missouri

California

Plus 8 smaller areas listed in the table.

Adults likely eligible, per county

0+4,100+7,400+14,500+24,100+40,600+71,900+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
Los Angeles CountyCalifornia341,600 to 644,90019.75,864
Harris CountyTexas169,600 to 333,40023.52,976
Miami-Dade CountyFlorida106,400 to 313,20021.71,434
Orange CountyCalifornia96,000 to 202,70020.21,029
Dallas CountyTexas88,000 to 187,00026.52,029
Clark CountyNevada112,900 to 186,10029.01,127
Broward CountyFlorida82,900 to 180,90022.9830
Bexar CountyTexas71,700 to 164,90022.21,098
Riverside CountyCalifornia89,200 to 152,70023.8181
Tarrant CountyTexas79,500 to 146,80027.7789
Palm Beach CountyFlorida65,200 to 145,20022.3965
San Bernardino CountyCalifornia77,900 to 132,20024.3219
Hillsborough CountyFlorida57,900 to 122,50028.31,024
Santa Clara CountyCalifornia46,700 to 110,40017.01,718
Orange CountyFlorida52,000 to 105,20024.61,512
Pinellas CountyFlorida49,700 to 101,80032.41,318
Fairfax CountyVirginia29,400 to 84,80014.71,080
Travis CountyTexas32,400 to 84,30018.51,171
Lee CountyFlorida42,300 to 82,20025.82,671
El Paso CountyTexas30,100 to 75,50015.6162
Duval CountyFlorida45,900 to 71,90035.41,673
Hidalgo CountyTexas30,600 to 71,20014.596
Collin CountyTexas32,900 to 69,90020.4380
Jackson CountyMissouri34,900 to 63,30036.51,589
Polk CountyFlorida40,900 to 63,30034.6688
Brevard CountyFlorida33,600 to 61,70035.8955
Ventura CountyCalifornia29,200 to 60,50020.4399
Denton CountyTexas29,100 to 59,40023.769
Davidson CountyTennessee26,500 to 56,90033.33,252
Fort Bend CountyTexas28,000 to 56,50018.1None billed locally
Volusia CountyFlorida33,900 to 56,30036.8866
Pasco CountyFlorida33,000 to 52,90036.4242
Sarasota CountyFlorida24,100 to 51,10027.3747
Jefferson CountyColorado19,100 to 47,30019.0559
Johnson CountyKansas19,500 to 47,10023.21,220
Denver CountyColorado18,200 to 46,60020.7333
Arapahoe CountyColorado20,300 to 46,00019.41,412
Montgomery CountyTexas26,800 to 45,70029.517
Salt Lake CountyUtah25,300 to 45,30015.3138
Manatee CountyFlorida24,400 to 41,90026.6300
Cameron CountyTexas15,900 to 41,70017.2None billed locally
Williamson CountyTexas19,700 to 40,60021.180
Sedgwick CountyKansas24,500 to 40,30037.11,032
Seminole CountyFlorida17,100 to 40,20026.670
Horry CountySouth Carolina28,300 to 38,90037.31,194
Marion CountyFlorida27,000 to 38,00040.1392
Lake CountyFlorida22,400 to 36,40031.6113
Hamilton CountyTennessee19,500 to 36,10034.7856
Nueces CountyTexas14,300 to 35,90023.0603
Charleston CountySouth Carolina14,800 to 35,50026.92,239
Adams CountyColorado19,100 to 34,80024.1676
St. Lucie CountyFlorida20,800 to 32,30031.9132
Osceola CountyFlorida16,600 to 31,20026.9158
Galveston CountyTexas15,100 to 28,50032.6197
Rockingham CountyNew Hampshire13,000 to 27,70029.1378
Brazoria CountyTexas14,200 to 27,50032.2171
Chesterfield CountyVirginia14,700 to 26,30029.41,147
Rutherford CountyTennessee14,900 to 25,60038.5242
Escambia CountyFlorida15,800 to 25,60043.4620
Loudoun CountyVirginia10,900 to 25,10017.713
Douglas CountyColorado10,000 to 24,60013.698
Buncombe CountyNorth Carolina12,500 to 24,40028.21,096
Charlotte CountyFlorida14,600 to 24,10031.747
Henrico CountyVirginia12,600 to 24,00034.91,392
Mohave CountyArizona17,300 to 23,70039.1119
Anchorage MunicipalityAlaska11,400 to 22,40030.31,011
Chatham CountyGeorgia12,900 to 21,80027.9589
Hernando CountyFlorida12,800 to 20,50041.3221
Leon CountyFlorida9,400 to 19,60028.2307
Sumter CountyFlorida9,300 to 19,40026.8None billed locally
Sumner CountyTennessee10,900 to 18,40039.412
Clay CountyFlorida10,900 to 18,30036.922
Alachua CountyFlorida8,800 to 18,30030.51,434
Berkeley CountySouth Carolina10,700 to 18,20032.5None billed locally
Citrus CountyFlorida12,900 to 18,10047.1139
Martin CountyFlorida8,300 to 18,10027.711
Indian River CountyFlorida9,400 to 18,00031.3267
Utah CountyUtah8,700 to 17,70010.971
Okaloosa CountyFlorida8,900 to 16,50041.534
Bay CountyFlorida10,400 to 15,90041.6171
Hays CountyTexas8,300 to 15,80021.265
Santa Rosa CountyFlorida9,800 to 15,10040.1None billed locally
Richmond cityVirginia8,600 to 14,90032.2665
Canyon CountyIdaho9,500 to 14,50027.034
Richmond CountyGeorgia10,100 to 14,50040.2315
Comal CountyTexas7,900 to 14,20027.4None billed locally
Montgomery CountyTennessee9,300 to 14,10046.4241
Wilson CountyTennessee8,000 to 13,90034.538
Dorchester CountySouth Carolina7,400 to 13,40033.622
Guadalupe CountyTexas7,600 to 13,40026.476
Henderson CountyNorth Carolina6,400 to 12,60030.9None billed locally
Davis CountyUtah6,700 to 12,50015.555
Rapides ParishLouisiana7,800 to 12,40038.9119
Highlands CountyFlorida7,000 to 11,80034.935
Columbia CountyGeorgia6,000 to 11,60029.0151
Warren CountyKentucky5,900 to 11,50049.0105
Parker CountyTexas7,800 to 11,50036.628
Weber CountyUtah6,600 to 10,60019.169
Spotsylvania CountyVirginia6,300 to 10,10031.1None billed locally
Cass CountyMissouri5,900 to 10,00036.1None billed locally
Strafford CountyNew Hampshire4,900 to 9,70036.4133
Vigo CountyIndiana5,800 to 9,60044.6None billed locally
Hanover CountyVirginia5,100 to 9,00031.1None billed locally
Roanoke CountyVirginia4,300 to 8,10028.81,290
Roanoke cityVirginia5,200 to 7,40043.4None billed locally
Bastrop CountyTexas5,100 to 7,30030.6None billed locally
Putnam CountyFlorida6,600 to 7,30057.8None billed locally
Bonneville CountyIdaho4,000 to 7,10021.1209
Robertson CountyTennessee4,800 to 7,00050.4None billed locally
Haywood CountyNorth Carolina3,700 to 6,70036.055
San Patricio CountyTexas3,200 to 6,50028.5None billed locally
Liberty CountyTexas5,400 to 6,40043.719
Columbia CountyFlorida5,000 to 6,10047.6None billed locally
Wise CountyTexas4,000 to 5,90041.0None billed locally
Montgomery CountyVirginia2,900 to 5,80025.7196
Franklin CountyKentucky2,900 to 5,80041.8108
Franklin CountyVirginia3,600 to 5,40034.816
Dickson CountyTennessee3,700 to 5,30052.726
Medina CountyTexas2,500 to 5,10025.6None billed locally
Atascosa CountyTexas2,200 to 4,90028.7None billed locally
McDowell CountyNorth Carolina3,000 to 4,50043.3None billed locally
Levy CountyFlorida3,600 to 4,30056.4None billed locally
Cheatham CountyTennessee2,700 to 4,20048.1None billed locally
Suwannee CountyFlorida3,300 to 4,10050.9None billed locally
Kendall CountyTexas2,000 to 4,10023.7None billed locally
Macon CountyNorth Carolina2,600 to 4,10036.4None billed locally
Transylvania CountyNorth Carolina1,700 to 3,90028.9None billed locally
Laurens CountyGeorgia3,100 to 3,90044.926
Gadsden CountyFlorida3,100 to 3,90040.0None billed locally
Cache CountyUtah2,400 to 3,80011.7None billed locally
Okeechobee CountyFlorida2,700 to 3,80049.8None billed locally
Colleton CountySouth Carolina2,700 to 3,70052.9None billed locally
Liberty CountyGeorgia2,200 to 3,40043.063
Lafayette CountyMissouri1,900 to 3,30040.6None billed locally
Pulaski CountyVirginia2,100 to 3,20041.6None billed locally
Marion CountyTennessee2,600 to 3,20054.0None billed locally
Ware CountyGeorgia2,300 to 2,90045.952
Gillespie CountyTexas1,400 to 2,80017.5None billed locally
San Jacinto CountyTexas2,000 to 2,80045.8None billed locally
Prince George CountyVirginia1,600 to 2,60041.6None billed locally
Box Elder CountyUtah1,600 to 2,30017.7None billed locally
Madison CountyNorth Carolina1,200 to 2,20039.7None billed locally
Toombs CountyGeorgia1,500 to 2,10052.1None billed locally
Mitchell CountyNorth Carolina950 to 1,60037.5None billed locally
Alleghany CountyVirginia1,000 to 1,50051.2None billed locally
Glades CountyFlorida1,000 to 1,40038.8None billed locally

43 of the 146 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 15.8% to the national rate of 18.2%, about 76,200 to 149,400 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 63% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

43,800new lung cancers
27,700found at a late stage
26,000lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at HCA Healthcare today

Clinicians at HCA Healthcare locations billed 4,553 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 10,500 to 29,400 screenings a year.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 11,413 primary care clinicians, 295 pulmonologists and 184 thoracic surgeons practicing at HCA Healthcare locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to HCA Healthcare by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (56%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (64%).

167 acute care hospitals

  • Methodist HospitalSan Antonio, TX
  • Medical City DallasDallas, TX
  • Sunrise Hospital and Medical CenterLas Vegas, NV
  • Mission Hospital IncAsheville, NC
  • Henrico Doctors HospitalRichmond, VA
  • Tristar Centennial Medical CenterNashville, TN
  • Cjw Medical CenterRichmond, VA
  • Memorial Health Univ Med CenterSavannah, GA
  • HCA Houston Healthcare KingwoodKingwood, TX
  • HCA Florida Jfk HospitalAtlantis, FL
  • Medical City PlanoPlano, TX
  • Wesley Medical CenterWichita, KS

And 155 more acute care hospitals.

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of HCA Healthcare patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See HCA Healthcare's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review