Oatmeal Healthoatmealhealth.com · public-data estimate, October 2026

Providence

Lung screening gap across 34 counties in Alaska, California, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas and Washington

820,000to1.6Madults in its service area qualify for lung cancer screening and are not being screened

About 12,700 people here are diagnosed with lung cancer each year, and 64% are found at a late stage, when it is hardest to treat.

Explore the screening network
CANVAZ
34 counties50 acute care hospitalsService areaShowing the California region; all regions are mapped below.
980,000 to 1.9Madults likely qualify under USPSTF 2021 criteria (estimate)
7,700lung cancer deaths a year in these counties, 2020 to 2024
16.1%of eligible adults screened in these states, vs 18.2% nationally

Estimates from public data only; no patient information. Sources and method below.

Where the eligible adults live

The counties where most of Providence's Medicare inpatients live. Darker areas hold more adults who likely qualify, which is where outreach would start. Hover or tap any area for its estimate.

California: Los Angeles area

Montana, Oregon and Washington

California: Sonoma area

New Mexico and Texas

Alaska

California and Oregon

Plus 1 smaller areas listed in the table.

Adults likely eligible, per county

0+2,000+4,300+8,800+20,200+35,900+137,000+

Acute care hospital in this system

Counties in the service area

CountyStateAdults likely eligibleLung cancer deaths per 100kMedicare screens billed locally, 2024
Los Angeles CountyCalifornia341,600 to 644,90019.75,864
San Diego CountyCalifornia99,700 to 208,80021.62,544
Orange CountyCalifornia96,000 to 202,70020.21,029
Riverside CountyCalifornia89,200 to 152,70023.8181
King CountyWashington47,700 to 137,00021.51,484
San Bernardino CountyCalifornia77,900 to 132,20024.3219
Multnomah CountyOregon28,400 to 58,90027.01,119
Snohomish CountyWashington26,700 to 54,30029.01,403
Washington CountyOregon17,700 to 43,10022.1227
Sonoma CountyCalifornia19,100 to 35,90022.4543
Clackamas CountyOregon15,700 to 35,40024.326
Spokane CountyWashington20,800 to 35,40030.51,924
Anchorage MunicipalityAlaska11,400 to 22,40030.31,011
Lubbock CountyTexas10,900 to 21,90030.2523
Thurston CountyWashington10,300 to 20,20031.3287
Jackson CountyOregon10,500 to 19,90027.4697
Benton CountyWashington6,700 to 13,20028.114
Napa CountyCalifornia5,000 to 10,20020.167
Missoula CountyMontana4,400 to 9,00024.5170
Humboldt CountyCalifornia6,300 to 8,80031.0510
Yamhill CountyOregon4,300 to 8,40028.4None billed locally
Lewis CountyWashington4,500 to 6,30034.6None billed locally
Kenai Peninsula BoroughAlaska3,700 to 5,80028.844
Lea CountyNew Mexico2,700 to 5,70026.0None billed locally
Walla Walla CountyWashington2,300 to 4,30028.0194
Stevens CountyWashington2,900 to 4,10029.3None billed locally
Clatsop CountyOregon2,200 to 3,70026.1None billed locally
Lake CountyMontana2,000 to 3,00028.4None billed locally
Hale CountyTexas1,500 to 2,90025.4None billed locally
Hood River CountyOregon950 to 2,00021.7106
Hockley CountyTexas950 to 1,90035.752
Sanders CountyMontana1,100 to 1,50033.3None billed locally
Kodiak Island BoroughAlaska540 to 1,100—None billed locally
Chugach Census AreaAlaska320 to 660—None billed locally

10 of the 34 counties had no Medicare lung screening reads billed from a local address in 2024. County names link to their Missing Millions page.

What closing the gap would mean

If screening in these counties rose from 16.1% to the national rate of 18.2%, about 20,900 to 41,000 more people would be screened each year.

In the National Lung Screening Trial, low-dose CT screening lowered lung cancer deaths by 20% compared with chest X-ray. Today about 64% of lung cancers here are found at a late stage.

Illustrative estimate: eligible adults (range) times the change in screening rate. Not a forecast or a guarantee.

Each year in these counties

12,700new lung cancers
8,100found at a late stage
7,700lung cancer deaths

NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles, annual averages.

Screening at Providence today

Clinicians at Providence locations billed 2,675 low-dose CT lung screening reads to Medicare fee-for-service in 2024. Including Medicare Advantage and other insurers, we estimate about 6,100 to 17,700 screenings a year.

Most adults who qualify see a primary care clinician every year. We count 7,238 primary care clinicians, 134 pulmonologists and 89 thoracic surgeons practicing at Providence locations. A 20 pack-year smoking history is often missing from structured EHR fields, so many eligible patients are never flagged.

CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners 2024 (CPT 71271); clinicians matched to Providence by practice address using the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems 2023, so reads billed by outside radiology groups are not included. The all-payer estimate scales Medicare fee-for-service by the local Medicare Advantage share (56%, CMS) and, at the high end, by the share of eligible adults under 65 (65%).

50 acute care hospitals

  • Prov Sacred Heart Medical CenterSpokane, WA
  • Swedish Medical CenterSeattle, WA
  • Prov Regl Med Center EverettEverett, WA
  • Providence St. Vincent Medical CtrPortland, OR
  • Providence Mission HospitalMission Viejo, CA
  • Providence Alaska Medical CenterAnchorage, AK
  • Providence Portland Medical CenterPortland, OR
  • Providence Saint Joseph Medical CtrBurbank, CA
  • Covenant Medical CenterLubbock, TX
  • Providence Little Company of Mary Med Ctr TorranceTorrance, CA
  • St. Joseph Hospital of OrangeOrange, CA
  • Providence St. Peter HospitalOlympia, WA

And 38 more acute care hospitals.

Find them, reach them, give radiologists a second opinion

LungIQ Find

Reads clinical notes, diagnoses and medications in the EHR and returns a ranked list of patients likely eligible, including those whose pack-year history is missing. Start with a CSV export refreshed every 1, 3 or 6 months, or connect through FHIR or HL7.

LungNAV Reach

An AI patient navigator that texts and calls patients in 70+ languages, answers questions about the scan, and hands each patient to your scheduling team or nurse navigators with a call summary.

LungAI Second opinion

Gives radiologists a malignancy risk score for each nodule, factoring in change since the prior scan, inside the PACS and CADe software they already use. The radiologist makes the final call.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. It is not commercially available in the United States.

How we estimate the gap

Modeled estimates from public data. They are not a count of Providence patients and contain no patient information.

  • Service area: CMS Hospital Service Area File 2025 (counties within 120 miles of a system hospital holding 80% of its Medicare inpatients, plus any county with at least 1%); hospitals from the AHRQ Compendium of U.S. Health Systems, 2023.
  • Eligible adults, low estimate: Oatmeal Health Missing Millions (Census 2025 population, CDC PLACES smoking, USPSTF 2021).
  • Eligible adults, high estimate: University of Minnesota National Lung Cancer Screening Estimates (Haynes 2026), which also counts former smokers.
  • Screening rate: American Lung Association, State of Lung Cancer 2025.
  • Lung cancer cases and deaths: NCI and CDC State Cancer Profiles (incidence 2019 to 2023, deaths 2020 to 2024).
  • Screening volume: CMS Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners, 2024; CMS Medicare Advantage State/County Penetration, September 2026.

LungAI is an investigational medical device and has not been cleared by FDA. Oatmeal Health is preparing a 510(k) premarket notification. LungAI is not commercially available in the United States.

See Providence's own numbers

In a 30 minute review we replace these public estimates with counts from your own records and agree on what a first program would look like.

Request a private screening review